Friday, April 27, 2007

St. Anthony Pre-race Clydesdales 40+

Well, I've been threatening to do this for a while now - with 2 days to go until St. Anthony's Olympic here in St. Pete, Florida, I'm ready to post pre-race predictions for the top 10 Clydesdales 40+. The podium is pretty big for SA as the top 10 get hardware.

The #1 and #2 seeds from last years results, William Glennon and John Cornish, have pulled out of the race for some reason this year (their 2:21 and 2:25 times will be sorely missed...), but #3 Kevin Convey is returning with a time from last year of 2:29:53.

In my opinion, the guy to beat this year will be Larry Witt. Larry just recently ran the Gasperilla Marathon in 3:19, and posted a 10:52 at IMFL06 - awesome times for a 200+ pounder. His time last year was 2:32:29 - barring any hiccups, he'll definitely be under 2:30 this year.

Joseph Dennis comes down from Birmingham, AL with a 7th place from last year and a time of 2:34:41, which was a close finish to Rick Downs of Redington Beach. Richie Petitbon returns with his 2:36:22 from last year. Peter Walton's 2:36 should put him in the top 10 this year, and Thomas Stinson also came in around 2:36 - he'll be coming down from Virginia, so hopefully he's got some training time in.

Kevin McAuliffe, Barry Powell, Trey Starkey, Dan Tillwick and Michael Stone are all in the running with times last year from 2:36 to 2:37 - and I think it's going to take a 2:36 to get into the top 10 this year, just like last year. Only 5 of last years top 10 guys are returning, but there are some notable newcomers this year.

Peter Helling from Brooklyn runs a 1:43 half mary and has gone 2:34 in an Oly. Frank Rudd and Douglas Hale, who runs a 46min 10k, will also be shooting for the podium with good performances throughout last year and who's fitness could have improved over the winter. Of course there are a few sleepers in there and some guys coming up from the 39 and under Clydesdale category, but as usual, SA Clydesdales will be extremely competitive.

And that brings us to the Bigun. I've been working hard all winter to break into the podium spot at St. Anthony's - that's been my #1 goal and my driving motivation for the beginning of this season. I know it will take a 2:36 or better to do that. I can look at the very probables first. I know I can run 8:45's off the bike. I know that. I know that I can bike 21.5 mph, even though I'm shooting for 22 mph. Lets just say I have an awesome race and put together a 22 mph bike with a 8:45 run - with 5 min total transitions that puts me at 1:07:30 on the bike and a 54:15 run time for a total of 2:06:45 - giving me only 30 minutes to swim in order to break 2:36. Ug - that's the rub - last year I did the swim in 33:45 in rough conditions and I've been averaging about 1,000 more yards a week this year in training compared to last. You can't win a tri with the swim, but you sure can loose it!

And who knows what this year will bring and who will bring it?!? If there are 10 guys who smoke it and race faster than 2:35 - so be it, and I have no control over that. Sure I'd be disappointed, but in reality, if I PR and come in at my goal pace, I'll be the happiest Clydesdale this side of the Mississippi!

So there you have it - the front runners, the guys in the chase, and me. Interestingly, my training buddy and all-round good guy Luke went 2:44 last year and my arch Nemesis (just kidding) Excel-man is racing in his first Oly (we have dinner riding on the overall winner)...I think if you add Luke's weight and Excel-man's weight, you almost have one of me. Pre-triathlon. Scary thought.

Luke's shooting for a 48 min run, a 66 min bike and 35 min swim with 5 min for transitions puts him at 2:34 - and I really hope he does it, but the other side of me, the evil competitive side, still wants to beat him for once. He's swam less than he did last year (but he's been biking a lot and running strong...) and I'm thinking 35 min is ambitious, but we'll see (that's my one shot - I need a good swim, and he has to swim crappy - like 40 min...).

Excel-man is a complete unknown. His Florida's Great Escape results are dubious in that the distances might not have been completely accurate (according to E-M). At those paces, and with some fudging for course, he'll have a 34:30 swim, a 1:17 bike and a smoking fast 44 min run with 5 min for transitions puts him at 2:40:30. I'll never live this down if I blow up out there...

17 comments:

LoneStarCrank said...

Lay down the hammer Bigun. Can't wait to hear about success. You are a machine...just don't let that machine blow up in the water.

Comm's said...

geesh, talk about handicapping. But that is what makes the sport fun.

I am all for some IED's along the course, just set the deTONator based on weight.

greeneyedlady said...

Hey, I bet you'd be harder on yourself than Excel-man ever would. I just pray you never find my NSA (Ntl Scrabble Assoc) tournament record and post that on-line! Good luck on Sunday, Mr B...

Bolder said...

let your preparation meet your opportunity on race day!

i'll be cheering for you -- you're my pony this weekend.

GO BIGUN!

Lesser is More said...

Let your times speak for themselves. Lay it all out there and I'm sure you'll be proud and happy with the results. Of course, hardware always helps to validate the effort...

Luke said...

The good thing for Bigun is that I am fully capable of putting up a 45 minute swim (yes I know it's an Olympic, it's a bit of a weekness for me)...which would give him the elusive victory over me.

Good luck Bigun...I hope you smoke it.

Di aka "Mrs Bigun" said...

MORE COWBELL!!!!!!

luke said...

definitely more cowbell...we can't wait to hear them...you guys rock!

Myles said...

Man you have some fast Clydes out there!

Just have a great time.

Duane said...

Good luck and kick some butt!

Anonymous said...

Too much blogging. Not enough tri-ing. The GFE distances ended up being .5 mi swim, 18 mi bike, and 3.1 mi run. The correct distances are in the USAT database. I swim slower than you think and ride way faster than you think. The actual run time was 21:59 if you go to the official event results. You have to bury be on the swim and bike if you want to win dinner Bigun. If you lose I won't say a thing because I'll be eating the dinner you bought me. G'luck.
Excel Man

tri-mama said...

Go get em big guy!

Di aka "Mrs Bigun" said...

WOW!! We've had and Excel Man aka Brickman siting!!! Holy cow!! Or I mean Holy COWBELLS!!!

Spokane Al said...

Thorough, analytical and hard training. That sounds like a winning combination to me. Knock em dead Bigun!

V-Sticks said...

Your hard work will pay off on Sunday, There's nothing better than the taste of victory. Have an awesome day.

JohnnyTri said...

cant wait to here the out come!

have a great one..

rockon`

ShirleyPerly said...

Wow, sounds like you've got things all analyzed and figured out. Can't wait to read your race report.

Thanks for your comments on my blog.